Here
we are, just rounding the first 1/8 turn of the second Trump
administration. Things are looking good so far, better than
expected.
International
affairs are going better than anyone thought they would, with serious
thought being given to awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Donald
Trump. What's more, his use of tariffs and focus on getting America
back to a favorable balance of trade looks like it might rev up our
economy without landing us in a recession, or excessively driving up
inflation.
The
MAHA agenda, with Robert Kennedy Jr. at the HHS helm seems to be
making steady progress. Since the whole agenda there is necessarily
driven at the pace of good science, any big changes will probably
come later.
Meaningful
reforms are already coming in the military, as Secretary of Defense
Hegseth makes good on his promises to return it to being a lethal,
effective fighting force.. Likewise, the recently passed Big
Beautiful Bill, along with the rescission package are a strong
beginning. With those votes in the rear view mirror, the congress
might actually get to many more of the recommendations made by DOGE
to rein in governmental waste, fraud, and abuse.
Even
on the perennially unsolvable issue of illegal immigration, this
administration's fierce initial approach has resulted in reducing the
flow of illegal migrants across our border to a trickle. That is a
solid beginning. This is, however, the one issue that we must focus
on, because it could make or break the entire MAGA agenda. Illegal
immigration will prove to be either the Achilles heel of the MAGA
movement or its' greatest achievement, and it will all come down to
whether we will just remain hard headed about it, or convert to a
stance of hard headed compassion.
The
2026 midterms are coming at us like a freight train, just a couple
more turns down the road. A year from now that election will loom
like a dark cloud over the national mind. The conventional wisdom is
that the party in power usually loses seats in the midterm, and we
must not let that happen. If the Democrats gain just a few seats in
the House, and maintain at least the filibuster option in the Senate,
these first two years might eventually be seen as the high water mark
of the MAGA movement.
If the
Democrats gain control of the House, as seems likely, that will
scuttle almost the entire agenda. Impeachment will fill the air, and
it won't be aimed solely at the President. Certainly, Big Pharma can
be counted on to bring the impeachment gun to bear on Kennedy. Even
if others are not impeached, those like Tom Homan will be forced to
spend more time in Washington, answering to committees, than in doing
their jobs.
On the
other hand, Illegal immigration could prove to be the Republican's
breakthrough issue of the 26 midterms. If we could get the hard
headed among us to accept a modified stance, we could not only manage
to barely hold our own, we might turn 26 into a red wave landslide.
There is a real chance we could get to a filibuster proof majority in
the Senate, while increasing our majority in the House. We might
then, for the first time in a long time, have one party national
government. Then, with no excuses for failure, the nation can decide
if we have done a good enough job to continue in power after Trump.
Then, and only then, we might be be on the verge of making America
great again.
To get
to the heart of the issue, what we have to do is modify our hard
headed, absolutely NO AMNESTY stance with some realistic compassion.
This plan necessarily contains some fine nuance (it can't be a repeat
of the 1986 debacle), which will be explained in a bit, but first
let's look at how unrealistic, and fictional, the NO AMNESTY stance
is.
As a
conservative guess, there are probably at least 30 million illegal
migrants here today. They mostly have close attachments, via
children (citizens who will remain citizens even if birthright
citizenship is ended. No Ex Post Facto laws allowed, remember?),
in-laws, and friends. So, at a minimum we are talking about a
deportation process that will have traumatic effect on 50 or more
million people, many of whom voted for Trump in 24.
Chances
are they will switch their votes in 26 if things keep going like they
are, and that will hand at least the House to the Democrats. That
could possibly render the entire MAGA movement a soon forgotten
footnote in the history of the decline of the American republic.
Trump can't run again, so we have only this one shot. We best not
blow it.
Look
at how things have actually been going. Yes, it appears that a
million or so illegal immigrants have been detained and or deported,
and once again, the border has been closed. That is a good start.
But
most of the deportees have been the despicable criminals and gang
members nobody wanted in the first place, along with those self
deportees who were probably intending to leave soon anyway. In other
words, they were the low hanging fruit. Even with all that going for
the deportation process, the administration still had to resort to
multiple deployments of the National Guard to assist ICE, and the
almost unheard of deployment of American combat forces on American
soil.
To get
from one million to 30 million, we will have to double that effort,
and then double it again, and then double it again, and then double
it again, and then double it yet again. Even now, many of the
immigrant's home countries refuse to repatriate them, so we shunt
them to third countries. That will work only in the short term and
in small numbers. In large numbers, dumping unemployed foreigners
will result in criminal gangs running amok in those countries, who
will then also refuse them.
It is
hard to see how we can continue, let alone accelerate, down this path
without resorting to martial law. Especially because of the
resistance in sanctuary cities and states. That might require dozens,
if not hundreds of National Guard and regular military deployments,
making America resemble a police state.
Disturbingly,
some of the brutal immigration enforcement looks like the worst form
of scapegoating. You know the drill. The people are deeply
frustrated about never seeing any elites arrested and convicted, no
matter how great their crimes. That kind of anger can be and
historically has been transferred, by sly leaders, to some other
group, some scapegoat. Then, suffering is inflicted on the
scapegoats while the truly guilty go forgotten. Evil leaders have
worked that game many times in the past.
Don't
try to argue the current American people are too smart for that. It
is to laugh. What's worst, this scapegoating looks like, and might
actually be, a continuation of the racist heritage we almost all say
we want to leave in the past.
If we
continue down this path, we will probably become a police state, or
fall into some form of civil war, or most probably both: low level
civil war and authoritarianism. America will become an armed camp.
Our deportation efforts will likely become an avoidable slow burning
humanitarian disaster, not solve the problem of illegal immigration
and resemble genocide.
All of
that will likely follow if we stick to the hard headed, absolutely NO
AMNESTY approach. Or rather, our false version of that approach
because let's be real here, that NO AMNESTY thing is a fiction to
begin with. There is no intention of applying that hard headed logic
to all the illegal employers. If NO AMNESTY were applied to illegal
employers today, almost all the meat packing, construction and
agri-business concerns would quickly be put out of business. Not
only would they lose their workers, but they would be fined into
bankruptcy, that is if we were serious about NO AMNESTY to law
breakers.
Many
will shout, “Whoa up and hold on there sport. A strict application
of the law to deprive billionaires of some of their millions of
dollars is a bridge too far, a tragedy too great to consider.” They
will say this while asserting that ruining the lives of millions of
weak and defenseless workers is perfectly alright. This is
scapegoating in action.
So
that NO AMNESTY thing will, in the fine tradition of American
euphemism and equivocation, fall apart in the wink and nod, backroom
dealings of the good old boy network. We all suspect that is how it
will end, after we witness a time of highly publicized brutal
enforcement. When immigration enforcement starts hitting the bottom
line of some big campaign donors, the vigor of law enforcement will
peter out, and things will go back to how they used to be. The
problem of illegal immigration will remain unsolved. That is the way
it has gone before, and that is how things will probably go this
time.
That
is what happened in 1986, and that is why amnesty did not work then.
Amnesty to illegal immigrants, with the border remaining porous, was
just an open invitation to more illegal immigration, and that is what
we got. Instead, we must first close the border, which we have done,
and make sure it stays closed, which will require an ending of ALL
illegal employment. It might also include expanding the wall where
appropriate, but that is a relatively small side matter.
Enacting
and vigorously enforcing strong laws against illegal employment will
be the key factor in keeping the border closed. We have simply to
turn off the jobs magnet attracting the workers.
Enforcement
of immigration laws will, contrary to those defending illegal
employment, be an easy fix. Simply attach hefty fines to every
instance of illegal employment, and make half the fine money payable,
as a bounty, to those who report it. That approach would make
enforcement very effective, and profoundly cost effective.
In
fact, that way of doing it would be so effective that it would
actually threaten the economic well being of many big corporations.
Then the real world benefits of this policy would come to the fore.
Rather than allowing themselves to go broke, the big corporate
illegal employers would be forced to make their arguments in
transparent public debate, and not just in smoke filled back rooms.
When the big business folks have to make their arguments public, we
will probably soon discover that in some fields, such as agriculture
and meat processing, we really do need some foreign workers
With
the real issues around illegal immigration finally up for transparent
public discussion, we could then move forward to find agreement on
real solutions to the problem of illegal immigration. Consider the
following possible agenda.
.
Any
such solution will have to be based on keeping the border tightly
closed. The first step has to be that everyone who comes in to this
country comes in through the front door, in compliance with our laws,
whatever we decide those laws will be. And that closure must be
maintained for as long as the border exists.
The
next stage in the plan is to establish some date certain, in the near
future, at which time all illegal employees, and their employers, are
required to identify all illegal workers. At that time each worker
will be assigned a provisional green card, with bio-metric data
attached and downloaded to a data base.. After that date, any worker
without such a card, and file in the data base, is subject to
immediate deportation and the employer is subject to a fine, if not
criminal prosecution.
Concurrent
with that, each of the workers is entered into and subjected to a
vetting process, the provisions of which will have already been
established and made transparent to the public. These protocols will
be designed to determine who deserves to gain permanent green card
status.
These
protocols will be based on things like time in country, legal record,
work history, character references from friends and employers, record
of family use or abuse of government services, and things like that.
That way, a person who has been here twenty years, worked hard, paid
their bills and kept their nose clean will be relatively assured,
even before entering into the process, of gaining a permanent card.
That way, much opposition to the plan will be muted.
On the
other hand, those who engaged in criminality, or who lived on the
edge of the law, or were illegitimately brought in during Biden's
open border fiasco, or who came here to game our system and take
advantage of our compassion, will be filtered out.
While
that vetting process is being carried out, all employees, legal or
illegal, will, for the first time, have equal legal status. That
means minimum wage, safety, and worker benefits laws will be in
force. That alone will make it to where native born Americans will
once again be able to compete for jobs in those fields. As the
vetting process continues, many of the foreign born illegal workers
will be gone, and even more native born workers will take their
place.
Once
again it must be emphasized that a closed border will have to be a
permanent fact for this plan to work. From this point forward there
will be no new illegal workers coming in. That will be the big
difference compared to 1986. Then, over the course of just a few
years, with our economy expanding as expected, the formerly illegal
workers will be absorbed into an open, free and fair market. The
problem of illegal immigration will largely be solved. Then we can
have full employment, with a dignified, legally protected and decent
life for all workers.
That
is the plan to solve it, but before we can get there, we must first
recognize and deal with the true bad guys in this scenario. There
are clearly some very powerful and entrenched special interests that
want the illegal immigration situation to stay exactly where it is.
(One wonders if some of them aren't among those pressing so strongly
for the NO AMNESTY fiction, so as to prevent any real solutions from
being presented.).
The
two major bad actors here are the commercial interests who desire an
ongoing supply of low cost and legally marginalized workers, and the
gangs and drug cartels south of the border who want easy access to
our nation for their nefarious activities, such as drug and human
trafficking. Those groups are very influential and will work hard to
prevent any solution to the illegal immigration problem, a problem
which makes them filthy rich. So we had better be fully prepared for
their intense opposition when we do agree on a solution.
The pivotal issue to
consider in defeating them is the rule of law. This factor is
naturally our best tool because the rule of law unites us: it
empowers the people to be certain we are in the right. This is THE
issue that corrupt politicians (by definition) and corporate
greedmeisters (by inclination) want to ignore.
As an example, think
about how ignoring the rule of law effects workers in just one kind
of job; janitorial work. It used to be that janitors were paid by
the hour as employees, with benefits, overtime, vacations, insurance
and such. These days that work is mostly subcontracted out,(largely
to illegals) so the worker has no benefits and is expected to pay
their own taxes. It’s still very low paid work, averaging little
more than ten to fifteen dollars an hour, and the worker, as stated,
is expected to pay the taxes out of that. The situation is similar
in other trades, such as construction and landscaping.
Most of the illegal workers simply don’t pay their
taxes, which maximizes their take home pay, allowing them to pay for
their own benefits. And there is a tendency to have the government
subsidize their pay by relying on emergency rooms for medical care.
The only way for an American to compete is to take a job that after
taxes brings home less than seven to ten dollars an hour, or to take
the risk of not paying the taxes.
If the IRS comes after
the illegal for back taxes, they can go underground, get a new phony
ID, take a temporary deportation, or maybe just take their savings
and depart for home. On the other hand, if the IRS comes after the
American worker, they’re in a lot of trouble, with almost no place
to hide. So the situation is that if the American is going to
compete with the illegal, they tend to move to a marginalized legal
status, effectively working under the table, just like the illegal.
That’s how it is working today, how it has always worked when the
law is being ignored, and how it will always work. Lawlessness
always begets more lawlessness.
Now consider how this
microcosm plays out when repeated millions of times over many years.
(As a side note, it is clear that the illegal community is composed
of more than just Mexican nationals, but the situation between our
two nations is so unique and we are so closely tied together that the
discussion will be simplified to make the point.)
Basically, if the rule of
law continues to be ignored, (if we allow lawlessness to continue it will only
get worse) the status of Mexican and migrant workers, both in this
nation and in Mexico, will stay the same or slowly get worse, and the
status of American workers (wages, protections, security, etc) will,
over the course of years, be brought down to that level. This has
been happening for decades now, and is a major factor in the widening
disparity between rich and poor in this nation.
On the other hand, if we
insist on the rule of law, requiring our government to do the will of
the people and forcing businesses to obey the law, the status of the
American workers (wages, benefits...) will stay the same as today, or
tend to slowly improve, and the status of the Mexican and migrant
workers, in this nation and in Mexico, will slowly be brought up to
that level. Thus, many of the economic issues facing the masses will
improve if we reject illegality and instead embrace the rule of law.
This might seem anti
business to some, but it really isn’t. It must be acknowledged
that the forces of commerce can be a great benefit to society, but
there is a tendency of business to be guided by runaway greed,
exploiting the weak and corrupting governments. It’s not that
business is immoral, rather it is amoral. Like a mindless, amoral
beast, it will take as much as it is allowed to take, and just like a
beast, if we stand up and say no, it will obey us and stand down.
If we
stand up and tell the forces of commerce that they can no longer
ignore the law to exploit desperate Mexicans and weaken the status of
low skilled Americans, they will turn tail like Bud Light after the
boycott. They will behave much like a dog caught trying to steal a
steak off the grill at a cookout. They will look up, offer a falsely
friendly smile, wag their tails, and change their plans.
They
will probably think something like, “Darn, I was making a killing
off that setup. Now I can't make so much money off the illegal
Mexican workers. Since they are all in Mexico, why don’t I figure
out how to make some money, maybe not as much, but some, off them in
Mexico. While I’m at it maybe I’ll invest some time and effort
into cleaning up the situation in Mexico so I can regularize and
maximize that stream of profit.”
In
that way, solving the illegal immigration problem by compassionately
returning to the rule of law will benefit all working people, in this
and other countries, and only minimally reduce the wealth of the
already wealthy.
If we
conservatives can do this, if we can temper our absolute NO AMNESTY
determination with some hard headed compassion; a compassion that
will truly and peacefully return us to the rule of law, then we could
very well generate a true red wave in November of 26. If by
September of 26 it looks like the issue of illegal immigration, can,
under Republican governance, actually be solved without causing a
humanitarian disaster in the process, we will likely prevail mightily
and the MAGA agenda will continue on to greatness.
In the
election of 2024, it was clear that the American people turned with
revulsion away from the Democrat agenda of anti American, anti
Christian DEI, LGBTQ and basically communist economic ideology. If we
Republicans allow NO AMNESTY absolutism to be the sole driver of our
thinking on immigration, many of those same voters will tend to turn
back to the Democrats. After four years of being out of power, and
hence out of mind, the latest re-packaging of commie lies from the
left might be made to sound good. To the undecided masses it could
look like a fresh and attractive alternative to the militarism,
racism, fear and loathing that will seem to be on offer from the
Republicans.
If we
continue on our present agenda of hard headed militaristic mass
deportation, we will find that the American people, long term, don't
have the stomach for it. Then the problem will go unsolved, (like
always) and the Republicans will have to scramble to hold on to any
power in 26, Which will probably result in a President AOC, or
something like that, in 28. All our present gains could be quickly
wiped out.
Reforms
of the military will be reversed. The Supreme Court might well get
packed. Abortion would be re-legalized nationally, MAHA will die,
and Big Pharma, and Big Food and Agra will be re enthroned. Worst of
all, the national movement toward moral revival will be viciously
attacked as DEI is again foisted on us with renewed determination.
What's
more, we will deserve that fate; of our so called Christian moral
revival fizzling. That is if we can't find a way to fulfill our
desire for a return to the rule of law without brutalizing the
weakest among us. Along the same lines, we Americans have also
traditionally scapegoated the weak, turning a blind eye to the
depredations of the rich and powerful.
If we
fall, once again, for this traditional American double sided moral
compromise, we truly will deserve to fall. If, on the other hand, we
can find a way to apply our Christian compassion, in a hard headed
way, to the problem of illegal immigration, we will demonstrate that
we deserve a chance to govern even after Donald Trump exits the
scene, to go all the way in making America great again.
Our
fate in 2026, the fate of the MAGA movement, indeed the fate of our
once glorious republic depends on our ability to think outside the
box. We must find a way to apply our Christian sensibilities to the
problem of illegal immigration without succumbing to either brutal
repression or passive surrender to runaway globalism. This has been a
presentation of one way we can do that. Can we join together to pray
for God's wisdom, courage, and faith as we move forward to improve on
and carry out this project?